GRN 2.6% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Elizabeth Watson-Brown, since 2022.
Geography
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.
History
Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.
Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.
A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.
Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.
The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won two more terms in 2013 and 2016.
Prentice lost LNP preselection in 2019 to Brisbane City councillor Julian Simmonds, and he went on to win the seat with relative ease.
Simmonds lost his seat in 2022 to Greens candidate Elizabeth Watson-Brown. The LNP and Labor primary votes both dropped, with the Greens primary vote increasing to push Watson-Brown into second place on primary votes, and Labor preferences gave her a majority of votes after preferences.
Assessment
This seat is a complex race to watch. For Watson-Brown to win re-election, she not only needs to win the preferential count but she also needs to stay ahead of Labor.
Lower house Greens MPs usually increase their support with the benefit of incumbency, and that would be particularly helpful in seeing off the Labor threat.
The LNP’s chances of regaining the seat partly depend on the Coalition’s ability to rebuild its support amongst inner-city voters. They do not appear to have made much progress on that front yet, which should help Watson-Brown.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 38,239 | 38.5 | -10.1 |
| Elizabeth Watson-Brown | Greens | 30,003 | 30.2 | +9.9 |
| Peter Cossar | Labor | 22,146 | 22.3 | -2.1 |
| Damian Coory | Liberal Democrats | 2,582 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Joel Love | One Nation | 2,237 | 2.3 | +0.1 |
| Kathryn Pollard | United Australia | 2,062 | 2.1 | +0.6 |
| Jina Lipman | Animal Justice | 1,088 | 1.1 | -0.8 |
| Janine Rees | Labor | 606 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Axel Dancoisne | Federation Party | 353 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Informal | 3,140 | 3.1 | +0.7 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Elizabeth Watson-Brown | Greens | 52,286 | 52.6 |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 47,030 | 47.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Cossar | Labor | 52,062 | 52.4 | +8.5 |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 47,254 | 47.6 | -8.5 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.
There are two different thresholds that decide who wins Ryan: firstly, who is leading in the race between Labor and the Greens? And then, after preferences, does the LNP have a majority against the main progressive opponent?
On a two-candidate-preferred basis, the Greens won a majority in three out of four areas, ranging from 56% in Enoggera to 57.2% in the Gap. The LNP won 52.9% in the west. The Greens also won 52.3% of the pre-poll votes and the LNP won 51.7% of the other vote.
On a primary vote basis, the Greens outpolled Labor in three out of four areas, with the Greens primary vote peaking at 36% in Indooroopilly. Labor polled 28% in Enoggera, outpolling the Greens in that area.
Generally the Labor vote was highest at the northern end of the seat, the Greens vote highest in the eastern end of the seat, and the LNP vote highest in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Indooroopilly | 36.3 | 19.5 | 56.2 | 18,433 | 18.6 |
| The Gap | 34.1 | 22.9 | 57.2 | 11,435 | 11.5 |
| Enoggera | 26.9 | 28.4 | 56.0 | 8,569 | 8.6 |
| West | 28.6 | 18.1 | 47.1 | 5,271 | 5.3 |
| Pre-poll | 29.5 | 23.0 | 52.3 | 30,812 | 31.0 |
| Other votes | 26.3 | 22.0 | 48.3 | 24,796 | 25.0 |
Election results in Ryan at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs LNP), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, the Greens and Labor.
Another batch of postals counted to advance the count to 79.7% of enrolment, though we’re still waiting on the 3CP. The gains that Labor is making on postals are not very fast though – Greens should still be several hundred in front on primaries after they finish postals, and then absents and other vote categories will be a gain of at least a couple hundred for the Greens.
At that point I don’t think there will be much to see – as said before, the Greens would be expected to gain on preferences over Labor on the 3CP. This is because even if most minor right voters may prefer Labor over the Greens, the vast majority of the preferences go to Liberals instead. Even if there is a shift in this behaviour to have Labor gain ground against the Greens, it’s unlikely to make up for the deficit on primaries.
Seems like the most likely outcome.
@The Banana Republic
The Greens didn’t get thumped – yes, they lost ground in Queensland (with very small drops in their primary vote and a massive surge in Labor vote costing Brisbane and Griffith) and in Melbourne, but their overall PV nationwide is still up, and their senate vote is up. All 6 senators up for election were very comfortably re-elected, nothing to be too concerned about.
As @JM said, these Queensland seats were always going to be very difficult to retain – they had a Goldilocks political climate that had the ALP 3rd in all 3 seats in 2022, the moment there was a swing against the LNP, Max was screwed regardless of if his PV increased. If they can hang on to Ryan it would be a major win moving forward.
Although I’d imagine Chandler-Mather particularly will be disappointed his PV dropped. He poured a lot into his electorate, from memory he used upwards of $50K from his own salary to fund the school breakfast program. I’m sure the CFMEU screw up didn’t help
One thing I haven’t accounted for is that the donkey vote swapped from preferencing Greens in 2022 to preferencing Labor this time. That might actually be quite critical in this contest, even if it’s something like 0.5%.
Could easily be the deciding factor, the lead on the AEC 3CP is ALP 0.24% ahead of GRN.
Can’t use that figure at all right now with no booth matching available but we apparently will get more information very soon.
I think at the end of the day this is going to be a pretty clear Greens retain, just to clarify. Based on primary votes, the current projected 3CP looks like it’s coming off a set of booths that favour Labor. When all is said and done I’m estimating an >1% 3CP gap.
Maybe it’s unwise of me to write this before Melbourne is called, but I don’t think there’s anyone who ever had the thought that Ryan could be the only Greens seat in the HOR.
I’d be really interested to see how EWB performs on her own. She seems more moderate than her colleagues. Maybe that’s what The Greens need now. And her background in business (and her investment property portfolio lol) is not what one would expect of a Greens representative.
I find it hard to see how the Greens can hold on from here. Yes Labor is behind now – the gap will get smaller with the rest of the postals and if they get ahead on absents the EWB is done – and it hard to imagine that many of the minor right votes would go to the Greens before the ALP.
Agree Nicholas, the Greens appear to have two ‘bases’ of support. One is comprised of the traditional left-wing voters (students and those from lower socio-economic backgrounds) who are seen as more activist in nature. These voters make up the bulk of Labor-Green seats in the Inner West of Sydney and the inner North of Melbourne.
The other side is those from a small ‘l’ Liberal background – generally tertiary educated voters who are more affluent in nature. These voters make up the bulk of Liberal-Green seats like those in inner Brisbane, North Shore of Sydney and the inner South of Melbourne. It is the latter group who are generally turned off by the Greens more vocal stances on issues like Palestine and taxation, so the party generally needs to moderate their image so they can appeal to both groups simultaneously.
@Redistributed As mentioned before, the Greens historically gain on preferences vs Labor in 3CP (example is Brisbane 2022). The vast majority of preferences from minor right parties go the LNP and those that remain tend to favour Greens over ALP. Those trends may change in this election but the indication so far is that they aren’t. Ben and Kevin Bonham have info on this now.
Greens will also gain on absents and there aren’t too many postals remaining, of which the remaining will likely weaken in strength for Labor. So the primary gap will increase, and the signs are that Labor won’t gain on 3CP.
@Nicholas With Bandt and Chandler-Mather out, it means the most recognisable Greens are gone and there’s space for a new leader (probably SHY) to change direction. Whether they do so or not is a different question. But I assume EWB will focus on being a hyper-local representative rather than lean into building a national profile in the way that Bandt and Chandler-Mather sought to have.
We must see what happens with the next 3000 Postal votes, however I’m predicting Hack winning. This is due to the postal votes (which the minor parties will further flow to labor).
So uh… any update on whether EWB be the sole Green MP or is she getting turfed out too?
@Nicholas May 7, 2025 at 5:16 pm
According to the 3CP count from the AEC:
ALP: 29.73%
GRN: 29.47%
LNP: 40.80%
If Labor manages to get a clear lead over the Greens it might be over for EWB
Oof, where are the votes from that are left to be counted?
Have a read of my blog post from this afternoon about the 3CP count. The votes counted so far significantly favour Labor. I expect Watson-Brown to have a comfortable margin.
Ah, I missed that – thanks.
The AEC’s 3CP count now has the Greens 1618 with 45 booths counted which looks pretty definitive and confirms Ben’s projection. Green hold.
That should be the Greens 1618 *votes ahead of Labor*, excuse me.
Just here to agree that Ryan will be a Green hold imo
ALP: 29.21%
GRN: 31.43%
LNP: 39.36%
As of me writing this comment EWB is ahead of Labor by around 1618 votes and I don’t think there’s any more votes Labor could get to close this gap.
Yes I agree that this will be a (the only) Green hold. The question is how big the margin will be. I can see this seat getting a swing to the Greens on 2CP making it much safer than before.
Based on various projections right now, it looks like Ms Watson-Brown is second on 3CP. Labor preference flows will obviously favour her. It still hangs in the balance but she’s the favourite. There’s still last-minute postals, absentees and other votes.
If you compare the booths included to the actual ordinary vote count, it is clear that the GRN vote is overrepresented. My calculations project only an 85 GRN lead
I did extensive analysis a few weeks ago that indicated that Bandt was at serious risk of losing his seat based on a few strong factors that compounded together. What I didn’t expect was for Watson-Brown to retain Ryan while Bandt lost…
A few weeks ago, after my research and constructing a detailed model, I made a $200 bet at 251 : 1 (paying out $50k) that The Greens would have zero seats in the lower house. I’m now understandably an anxious mess concerning Ryan, and it seems Watson-Brown will retain. Devastating result. Anyone have information that could highlight hope for ALP in this seat?
Jim, I don’t have good news to offer you besides that the margin is probably too high currently, but I still don’t think it will be close as my previous posts state. Betting on an exact seat count is extremely inexact – hope you also bet on the seat of Melbourne itself or covered the 0 seat bet with 1 seat. Those must have had extremely good odds even if not 251. If not, well, I hope that $200 was nothing critical. If you’re betting on a long shot I trust it wasn’t.
Imagine if there was a market for betting on exactly what seats The Greens would win – I wonder what “Ryan only” would have been paying?
@Nicholas I’m sure you could have made a Multi of Labor winning Griffith, Brisbane, Melbourne, Wills, Macnamara and Richmond and Greens winning Ryan. Would probably have been 1000 to 1 odds.
I don’t think Sportsbet allows multis for seat betting. Does any bookmaker do? Calculating the odds would be very difficult because they’re not independent outcomes. (If it is given that a party has a surprise win in one seat, a surprise win in another is less surprising than it would be without the given.) Either they’d have to do something fancy to calculate the odds, or the bookmaker’s edge (which typically accumulates in multis) would have to be savage enough that it covers any possible dependence between outcomes.
@Adda
I hedged with 1 seat, so I break even off that, but that $200 is the least of my concerns. It was never a prediction per se, and I didn’t expect it to hit, just a very serious mispricing in the market. You’d expect similar odds to Bandt losing his seat, but not at all, that was 10 : 1, while them having no seats was 251 : 1. A clear mistake in the odds – to such a strong extent – alongside due diligence and an evidence based belief that Bandt was at serious risk were key motivations in the bet.
If Ryan comes down to a few percent or less, I’m more than happy with myself for making such a call anyway.
That was an excellent call, Jim.
The best I got was independent to win Fowler in 2022 at 51.00 odds. This was after Keneally was preselected but before there was even talk about the possibility of Dai Le running. I only put 50¢ on it though! xD
@ Nicholas
Ha ha, you gotta back yourself!
I made my first ever mobile bet on Greens winning Ryan at $2.80, I have never seen election odds so skewed for an individual seat given the mathematical improbability of a Greens loss.
I was near certain LNP could not possibly increase their primary vote due to the unique demographics of the seat (and the horrible Lib campaign of course), but also it would be near impossible for Labor to catch the Greens in 2nd due to the massive 8% gap in primary vote, which turned into a 10%+ gap with preference distributions.
Given the demographics of the seat again, incumbent and non-controversial Greens candidate and the fact many on here said Labor were not campaigning hard in Ryan, I came to conclusion it would have to take an unprecedented Labor win with unforeseen swings for Greens to have a chance of losing.
Feeling very vindicated in my thought process given how everything has played out.
The Libs had an excellent candidate in this seat
I had a similar thought process. Though Labor in the end has come very close to winning – it’s not the easiest payout I’ve had (that honour for this election goes to Sturt, where I saw odds of >4 since the very beginning of the campaign) but I certainly couldn’t understand why the Liberals were rated as being competitive here. There seems to have been some broad perception that this seat would revert to Liberal hands simply because this had a thin margin, and ignoring the distinct characteristics of the seat and the way it had been trending.
3CP results updated, GRN lead is now 0.65% over ALP on 57 booths. Anyone have any input?
I’m very biased and I’m really holding out for an ALP surprise victory not just for @Jim F but also the Labor candidate who 100% deserves this seat, but is there any chance that the 3CP operates on preference flow assumptions that aren’t true? We had a significant Advance outfit on my polling booth, with the only message being to vote Greens last – the Greens have also in my mind, picked up the perception of pseudo-“major party” in media.
PS: In the end, was it more strategic for people who want the Greens out of the seat to vote Labor 1st preference? – I’m very new to election stuff so please correct me. Thank you!!
Greens set to hold here which has just been called by the ABC. Out of all of the Greens seats it seemed this was the most at risk at the time but it looks like they’ll just hold on to second place in the primary vote.
@SpaceFish this is I believe the only seat in the country where:
* On federal results it’s green
* On state results it’s red AND
* On council results it’s blue
Incumbency is probably what helped the Greens this time plus perhaps there were some Labor voters who tactically voted Greens.
Hopefully we see Maggie Forrest running again somewhere soon.
@ Nether Portal,
Ryan overlaps Maiwar which is held by the Greens and Moggill held by the Liberals.
Also bits of like Cooper and those ones I think tho.
@SpaceFish Ryan overlaps Moggill, Cooper, Ferny Grove and Maiwar. I believe on state figures it’s a notional Labor seat, because the 2pp in the former three seats is ALP vs LNP.
@A A,
Basically all of Moggill, 95% of Maiwar, 10% Cooper and about 20% Ferny Grove. Ferny Grove seems to split into 3 federal electorates which Ryan, Brisbane and Dickson whereas, the other three are split between Ryan and Brisbane.
Honestly, it’s too hard to tell if on the state figures whether Labor or Greens would make it in the final ttp.